The first day of the playoffs when we really have to guess the winners in a lower bracket match for a possible double series. Is it wise to all-in on a team or is it better to spread your eggs across multiple baskets? Let’s find out.
Cores
Aster.Suma1L- is once again a no-brainer. Not only does he have a chance of a double series, but he is also statistically one of the best performers. If you really believe in OG victory there is perhaps a reason to go for 
OG.Ceb, but we would advise against it. Ceb is among the worst fantasy performers in the game, so it could be very risky to slot him in, especially if OG does, indeed, lose the tomorrow series.
Instead, we will go for 
TSpirit.Yatoro. Counter-intuitive? Slightly. But even with single series he is expected to earn almost the same as double series Ceb. There is also a third option in 
Nightfall, but in our opinion it is just not worth it, as you will be skipping double point chance in favor of ~7% more expected points.
Mid
With the chance of double series and some incredible performances during the playoffs 
Topson is an obvious choice for day four. Sure, 
T1.Karl is a beast and you should absolutely slot him in if you don’t want to gamble on double series and feel unsure about the outcome between OG and Team Spirit, but we would advise against it. The chance of double points is a priority even with ~20% higher average of Karl, compared to competition.
Supports
Once again, one of the supports is an OG member. 
Saksa is definitely not a top fantasy earner, but he is good enough fantasy-wise to slot him in, considering high chances of double series.
Our second support is not going to be 
OG.N0tail, however. Even with the double series potential, he is expected to score only ~20% more than 
Miposhka and it is just not worth risking it, in case OG loses.
Is all-in OG worth it? Perhaps, but it really depends on how sure you are about their victory. We will play it safe, in case the CIS youngsters do show up big time.
I fucked up day 1 so I need a hail mary to catch up to my mates who are 100/200 points ahead, lets go OG only!!
Since i had a terrible saksa/notail card, does using whitemon with miposhka worth the risk or just go all in on the OG card?
Doesn't matter sir, I get bronze cards that score better than golds, hero picks are more important then card rarity, they are nice to have but only boost a little bit
aside from notail and miposhka.. how about the other supports from vici, t1 and vp? are they any good?
No because they only play 1 series. You diversify between OG-Spirit because at least 2-3 of your card will guaranteed got points from 2 series (4 games worth)
Edit: to further elaborate: your best bet is either full OG, full spirit, or mixing OG-Spirit
Notail and Ceb is "kicked" because while you expect OG to win, their average points is low enough that the loss from them is manageable, while ensuring you at least to get something from yatoro miposhka in case of spirit upset
@altaire thanks for the info
I'm going all OG.
Based on my estimates, if Spirit loses to OG, Yatoro from spirit is going to underperform on his fantasy points, so it's double loss because you picked the losing team, don't get double series, and the person you picked will have points below their average, so underperforming yatoro for 2 games, versus normal ceb for 4 games... Potentially more games.
If OG/VP go to BO3, then ceb will have 5 games on his belt. Even with an average of 10 points per game, Yatoro would have to net 25 points per game as core vs OG to match Ceb, the likelihood of that seems so low, and I think OG losing to spirit is an upset, so if anything, I consider going all in OG as the 'safer' play versus mixing and matching with spirit/OG. Considering that both teams cores are playing VS the other, when 1 core does well, that usually translates to the core on the other team doing poorly relative to their averages.
Looking at the most recent average of D2 Main event for OG, notail and ceb are posting up decent numbers compared to spirit players.
OG is a much stronger team than Spirit, so it's a no brainer to go fulll OG.
I agree, the safest play is to mix and match between OG/Spirit, but due to a bug with fantasy, I lost my mid and cores on D2 of group stages because I dusted my cards while they were locked in, so I could not replace them. I'm about 400 points behind 1st place amongst my friends, and I have a gold notail card, all the more reason to go all-in on my strategy.
The following day, I predict LGD will knock out secret, so I have all of my roster set to secret, and last day is mix of LGD/Secret as I think the final will be between those 2 teams. Hope for the best!
@Altaire can u pls explain it in a more simple way that why we prefer using OG vs TS cards?
3peat my ass. Had put OG cards coz i trust them but maaan, what a disapointment.
well i guess that having a safeguard was not bad of an idea
i didnt put miposhka in but i think that having yatoro might boost me up cause people most likely bet heavily on og
and og....... the bed
@I am Groot I'm not Altaire, but OG were generally expected to win, so they were favored, simple as that. But if anyone were confident spirit were to win they should've gone either for 3 spirit 2 og if unsure, 3 spirit and 2 top scorers like nightfall whitemon being extra safe, or full yolo 5 TS which I personally wouldn't recommend but that's what yolo is
I went yatoro whitemon, since I didnt want to all-in on either teams weak scoring supports of potential 2-series, and instead went with someone whos way more likely to be secure. not losing too much if ts lost and, while expecting OG to win, just in case they shit the bet (as they did) I would gain advantage over everyone going either either full OG or extra safe.
Couldve gone for Miposhka over Saksa since he scores pretty meh but that was too safe even for me lol.
^thanks
saksa was awful today
Remember you don't get 3 game out of a bo3 even if it goes the distance. You get the best 2.