There is definitely an element of form. But I think that a lot of the time simply playing someone better than you can make you look bad.
Not really no. 90% of my wins and loses come down to whoever picks the better team. Despite all of people's bitchin the matchmaking system does match you with people very close in skill. The issue is just attitudes and picks.
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Do you ever feel like some days you're worse at dota than others? Some days I feel like my mind is clearer, and hands quicker. Others, I feel much slower and the other team just poops on me.
Winning:
http://dotabuff.com/matches/790131691
http://dotabuff.com/matches/788250273
http://dotabuff.com/matches/782186475
Terrible:
http://dotabuff.com/matches/793812708
http://dotabuff.com/matches/793777797
http://dotabuff.com/matches/791588513