General Discussionsome math pro guy help pls

~20 games in a row i think

In order to have a 93% win rate you would have to win 202 games in a row.

678 Wins/729 Games = .93

The reason it is so much is because every time you play a game, even if it's a win, both the number on the numerator and the number on the denominator increase.

Let me explain further. Right now your win rate is 90.32% which is calculated by
476 Wins/(476 Wins + 49 Losses + 2 Abandons) = .9032
If you were to play and win one more game the formula would recalculate as follows
477 Wins/(477 Wins + 49 Losses + 2 Abandons) = .9034

As you can see the win rate is calculated from Wins/Total Games not Wins/Losses so in order to get the win rate to increase a large amount of games must be won.

i just lost a game on that account so i wont even try to get that to #1 fuck.
gonna play on this :D http://www.dotabuff.com/players/174733177

Well, I just reran the numbers and you only have to win 215 games now. Shouldn't be too hard, right?

its harder now atleast, since if ur 5 and queing normals now, you will face 5stack all the time. wasnt like that some months ago >_>

Yep, 202 games in a row to break 93%.

EDIT: Actually the first time I did the math I accidentally used 528 instead of 527 for total games. I did all the other stuff right and didn't do the addition correctly.

I think you need to have 700 games in total? For the wins to be 93 percent of your games that means that your 49 losses should be 7 percent of the total games. 49 is 7 percent of exactly 700.

^You forgot the 2 abandons. They count as losses.

Vroksnak: Do you stream by any chance or have any recent replays of your games? I would be interested in either (and perhaps a few other people here)

Thanks for your time.
Sorry for hijacking thread :C

He has bad pc, so no.
Anyhow, add me from that smurf, i need to play some unranked to start doing challenges.

Vroksnak both of your smurfs are unreal. I don't see any point in investing so much time to go back up to being number 1 in dotabuff's list. Just stick with the ranking leaderboards and get a good pc and a decent connection with at least 2mbps upload to stream whenever you can. Also keep focusing on that e-sports profile, it's your only ticket for entering the competitive scene for good, if that's what you have in mind in the near future.

190 wins or so

stacking fails

'4k'
i just need a new computer and i would be able to stream, but i dont have any cash since i lost my school laptop and i had to pay for that and stuff right now. i do have 100/10 mbit tho.
I dont have that much time to focus on my leaderboard rank its so boring to play, i rather scrim with my team and play some normals just to chill.

Total Games Req = TG
W = Wins
W% = Win Percentage increase

TG W W%
527 - 476 = 90.32
528 - 477 = 90.34
529 - 478 = 90.36
530 - 479 = 90.38
531 - 480 = 90.40
532 - 481 = 90.41
533 - 482 = 90.43
534 - 483 = 90.45
535 - 484 = 90.47
536 - 485 = 90.49
537 - 486 = 90.50
538 - 487 = 90.52
539 - 488 = 90.54
540 - 489 = 90.56
541 - 490 = 90.57
542 - 491 = 90.59
543 - 492 = 90.61
544 - 493 = 90.63
545 - 494 = 90.64
546 - 495 = 90.66
547 - 496 = 90.68
548 - 497 = 90.69
549 - 498 = 90.71
550 - 499 = 90.73
551 - 500 = 90.74
552 - 501 = 90.76
553 - 502 = 90.78
554 - 503 = 90.79
555 - 504 = 90.81
556 - 505 = 90.83
557 - 506 = 90.84
558 - 507 = 90.86
559 - 508 = 90.88
560 - 509 = 90.89
561 - 510 = 90.91
562 - 511 = 90.93
563 - 512 = 90.94
564 - 513 = 90.96
565 - 514 = 90.97
566 - 515 = 90.99
567 - 516 = 91.01
568 - 517 = 91.02
569 - 518 = 91.04
570 - 519 = 91.05
571 - 520 = 91.07
572 - 521 = 91.08
573 - 522 = 91.10
574 - 523 = 91.11
575 - 524 = 91.13
576 - 525 = 91.15
577 - 526 = 91.16
578 - 527 = 91.18
579 - 528 = 91.19
580 - 529 = 91.21
581 - 530 = 91.22
582 - 531 = 91.24
583 - 532 = 91.25
584 - 533 = 91.27
585 - 534 = 91.28
586 - 535 = 91.30
587 - 536 = 91.31
588 - 537 = 91.33
589 - 538 = 91.34
590 - 539 = 91.36
591 - 540 = 91.37
592 - 541 = 91.39
593 - 542 = 91.40
594 - 543 = 91.41
595 - 544 = 91.43
596 - 545 = 91.44
597 - 546 = 91.46
598 - 547 = 91.47
599 - 548 = 91.49
600 - 549 = 91.50
601 - 550 = 91.51
602 - 551 = 91.53
603 - 552 = 91.54
604 - 553 = 91.56
605 - 554 = 91.57
606 - 555 = 91.58
607 - 556 = 91.60
608 - 557 = 91.61
609 - 558 = 91.63
610 - 559 = 91.64
611 - 560 = 91.65
612 - 561 = 91.67
613 - 562 = 91.68
614 - 563 = 91.69
615 - 564 = 91.71
616 - 565 = 91.72
617 - 566 = 91.73
618 - 567 = 91.75
619 - 568 = 91.76
620 - 569 = 91.77
621 - 570 = 91.79
622 - 571 = 91.80
623 - 572 = 91.81
624 - 573 = 91.83
625 - 574 = 91.84
626 - 575 = 91.85
627 - 576 = 91.87
628 - 577 = 91.88
629 - 578 = 91.89
630 - 579 = 91.90
631 - 580 = 91.92
632 - 581 = 91.93
633 - 582 = 91.94
634 - 583 = 91.96
635 - 584 = 91.97
636 - 585 = 91.98
637 - 586 = 91.99
638 - 587 = 92.01
639 - 588 = 92.02
640 - 589 = 92.03
641 - 590 = 92.04
642 - 591 = 92.06
643 - 592 = 92.07
644 - 593 = 92.08
645 - 594 = 92.09
646 - 595 = 92.11
647 - 596 = 92.12
648 - 597 = 92.13
649 - 598 = 92.14
650 - 599 = 92.15
651 - 600 = 92.17
652 - 601 = 92.18
653 - 602 = 92.19
654 - 603 = 92.20
655 - 604 = 92.21
656 - 605 = 92.23
657 - 606 = 92.24
658 - 607 = 92.25
659 - 608 = 92.26
660 - 609 = 92.27
661 - 610 = 92.28
662 - 611 = 92.30
663 - 612 = 92.31
664 - 613 = 92.32
665 - 614 = 92.33
666 - 615 = 92.34
667 - 616 = 92.35
668 - 617 = 92.37
669 - 618 = 92.38
670 - 619 = 92.39
671 - 620 = 92.40
672 - 621 = 92.41
673 - 622 = 92.42
674 - 623 = 92.43
675 - 624 = 92.44
676 - 625 = 92.46
677 - 626 = 92.47
678 - 627 = 92.48
679 - 628 = 92.49
680 - 629 = 92.50
681 - 630 = 92.51
682 - 631 = 92.52
683 - 632 = 92.53
684 - 633 = 92.54
685 - 634 = 92.55
686 - 635 = 92.57
687 - 636 = 92.58
688 - 637 = 92.59
689 - 638 = 92.60
690 - 639 = 92.61
691 - 640 = 92.62
692 - 641 = 92.63
693 - 642 = 92.64
694 - 643 = 92.65
695 - 644 = 92.66
696 - 645 = 92.67
697 - 646 = 92.68
698 - 647 = 92.69
699 - 648 = 92.70
700 - 649 = 92.71
701 - 650 = 92.72
702 - 651 = 92.74
703 - 652 = 92.75
704 - 653 = 92.76
705 - 654 = 92.77
706 - 655 = 92.78
707 - 656 = 92.79
708 - 657 = 92.80
709 - 658 = 92.81
710 - 659 = 92.82
711 - 660 = 92.83
712 - 661 = 92.84
713 - 662 = 92.85
714 - 663 = 92.86
715 - 664 = 92.87
716 - 665 = 92.88
717 - 666 = 92.89
718 - 667 = 92.90
719 - 668 = 92.91
720 - 669 = 92.92
721 - 670 = 92.93
722 - 671 = 92.94
723 - 672 = 92.95
724 - 673 = 92.96
725 - 674 = 92.97
726 - 675 = 92.98
727 - 676 = 92.98
728 - 677 = 92.99
729 - 678 = 93.00

You need 203 won games exactly

^ I hope you wrote a program or used something like MS Excel for this.

Wow such maths.

Python (IDLE) does the calculation for me I just create the algorithm.

how simple was the algorithm? isn't just calculating it easier in this case? Or you did it cause everyone said 202 wins are required.
edit: it's actually 202, since he has 476 wins and needs to have 678

i made a mistake

I didn't understand what you meant. Isn't number of loses constant if he's gonna win all the games?
51*100/7=728.57 round up
729-51-476=202 is what I did.

In idle ++ is used to increment, all he needs to calculate is the number of wins so we're not factoring in loses. Using some basic Pseudo code I will explain.

Cycle using the common win rate algorithm which is wins / games * 100 using the loop criteria of 93% winrate

games = 527
wins = 476
winrate = 90.32
while (winrate < 93):
print 'youre not there yet keep trying', winrate
wins = wins + 1
games = games + 1
wins/games*100 = winrate

print "Your 93 winrate hurrah"

Before you start the cycle again with a while loop you do wins = wins +1 games = games +1 then just recycle until the while criteria is met which is 93% but again using IDLE you can be very lazy about how you actually go into solving it.

Correct me if im wrong. Arent you counting the lowest value (which is 476) with you algorithm? It should be excluded since that particular game is already done...

Yes as mentioned by Luxon but in maths and programming you go with what you know first before you make intellectual assumptions.

I know his games and his win rate and then work from there but correctly, sense checking data is quite a good habit and something I frequently over look.

476-51
527 total
WR=0.903
x/x+51 =.93
x=.93(x+51)
x=.93x+47.73
x-.93x=47.43
.07x=47.43
x=677.57
678-476 = 202

Doing it like in school. But counting for loses to be 7% is sure better.

Sligtly over 201 so 202

The calculation isn't that hard.
You have 476/527 = 90,32%
Since you want only win you head for (476+x)/(527+x) = 0,93 (=93%)

It's a degree one equation (so basically, as long as you know what you can do in an equation, you will easily solve it ^^)

I agree with matrice, the easiest possible way to calculate it i think.

I actually noticed that it's what epsik-kun made (well he did a variation of the basic equation), but he wroted it in a way that made it complicated :p