General Discussion

General DiscussionMmr inflation theory

Mmr inflation theory in General Discussion
kormoranas

    I have an idea, what if current lets say 4500 mmr is equal in skill to 4000 half a year ago?
    Is mmr inlfating? And will you climb when time passes if you hold on to same skill level.
    There are few reasons why i think so.
    1. When. I was 4896 mmr half year ago, i was matched even with 6k players, since there werent so many players searching at this mmr levels, to match them more even. I dropped down to 4k, now i climbed to 4.9k, and at current games, i am matched with almost all 10 equal mmr players, meaning there are many like me, and it wasnt like that before.
    2. When i was 4.8 before, i was unstoppable with jungle heroes, first picked ursa jungle and had 67% win rate, i dominated all the games completely, kept destroying all enemy team solo. Other heroes in jungle like legion, lifestealer, troll had solid 60% win rates as well. I just knew farming patterns that put me 2-3 levels ahead of enemy cores and when jungle were nerfed it took some time for my hero pool to be replaced, new tactics to evolve, new farming patterns to appear, but unlike in times before, i do not have so many games where i solo win it, what i mean to tell is that i think i was better in former meta than i am now, but yet i reached even higher mmr.
    So is mmr inflating? What do you think

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      A

        I agree with that. Every time i play 2k ranked match i got Dejavu 5 man carry in my team.

        chicken spook,,,,

          Jacked

            Honourable that you think you haven't improved but your mmr is going up. There are a lot of dynamics involved so it could be a number of reason. Inflation is not entirely impossible. But What type of inflation are you referring to? generally if you are saying skill hasn't changed you're saying system is creating mmr. Typically this would be best explained by large influx of new players - so mmr is created for the bulk of better players while skill level hasn't changed.

            That's the only reason I know could legitimately create mmr with enough effect.

            The other possibility u experience is the inflation of the right tail end of the distribution (high mmr players). Or, there could simply be an overall increase in Dota population (more players at every mmr). So while skill hasn't changed, U have more 4k games compared to the past.

            Inflation of the tails could be why u don't see 6k players anymore and also why the leaderboards have slowly kept increasing. But that's a whole different ball game.

            I think the average hasn't moved, and there's no inflation. But there's more players overall and inflation is only experienced by the best players

            Tento komentář byl upraven
            kormoranas

              Basically mmr in dota is not fixed, therefore new player can calibrate at 1k and he can do that in 3500 mmr, both these cases changes total average mmr, and you being average player can have totally different mmr. Maybe they changed calibrating formula or something, so that it easier to get good calibration by being not so good player, so then your mmr player usually defeats you since you calibrated too high, and then you defeat the player who defeated too high calibrated player so this mmr finally end up at much higher mmr dota player. Basically that is what i mean by mmr inflation.

              Emon

                More high mmr players available = more chances to climb up
                tho it would be unfair to compare a player of the past to present, Why? because the 2 are from different metas
                meta can fuck a players playstyle unless he fails to adapt
                hence, the mmr you have right now is the mmr you deserve. those who have higher mmr now are those who adapted quite well or abused what is op during the meta. i think that's how it works

                Jacked

                  The assumption is new players will calibrate lower where they belong of course. It's not logical to assume new players calibrate at 3500. But yes you are right. Let's assume If calibration was somehow changed and it caused a large discrepancy and inequilibrium, such that a whole bunch of new players overcalibrating, then you'd see inflation. But youd need a lot of this to happen

                  Also understand that if they are overcalibrated it's not really a huge net increase in mmr as there are 4 other players who did not deserve to lose that mmr

                  Tento komentář byl upraven
                  Oldman

                    Kormoranas - You are absoulutely wrong. Since I were 5.1k before 6.84, after that I had 3 moths break and came back to dota I can tell one thing for certain. People got better overall.

                    Today 4.5 k mmr is equal to old 5k mmr. People are getting better in a period of time, community gets better. So on average old 4.5 players, although still 4.5 k play like old 5k.

                    When it comes to the player database there;s just more high mmr players to play with cos they got better, not because the system is inflated.

                    2. No. Gaben introduced shrines, making it more difficult to win the game solo. Now you need an actual team to take objectives, unless u are 6k arc warden spammer in 3k bracket. Add jungle nerf which also gave me cancer since I had my solo mmr grinded by spamming Chen back then. After that it was a downfall, altough nothing really changed in my Chen playstyle. Just the meta changed.

                    Tento komentář byl upraven
                    Jacked

                      @lex It is also likely that ppl improve over time and averages increase. This is evident also in IQ where if you compared averages across generations, it has moved a lot.

                      But I don't think Dota is at that stage. The only ppl who can continue to get better are the best ones.

                      Tento komentář byl upraven
                      Oldman

                        Certainly average mmr didint increase from 2k to 3k, i bet my golden naix immortal.